Money
€144,555,000. That’s how much money teams in the second tier of English soccer have spent this summer. To put that in perspective, only the European ‘Big 5’ have spent more. That puts the Championship ahead of the likes of the Dutch Eredivisie, Portuguese Liga NOS and the Chinese Super League. It’s also a cool €101m more than the MLS have spent. It’s entirely understandable that Championship teams are spending so much money, when the Championship promotion race, and promotion to the Premier League, is so valuable.
Promotion to the Premier League is worth almost €225m, per the Telegraph. Teams like Aston Villa and Leeds have unsuccessfully spent huge amounts of money over recent transfer windows to try and get themselves back into the Premier League. Wolves, Leicester and West Ham are among the teams who have spent huge sums of money to keep themselves in the top flight. Success stories like Bournemouth and Huddersfield allow teams like Preston and Ipswich to dream. Yo-yo clubs (teams who get promoted and relegated frequently) like Norwich and Hull have shown that it’s not easy playing with the big boys without the right personnel.
24 Teams: One Dream
24 teams fight for three promotion places, one of which via play-off. Some are also pushing themselves away from four relegation spots and League One. When you get close to promotion and don’t succeed, it can be a slippery slope. Premier League teams could tempt your players or manager, or relegated teams may push you out of your previous standing. Reading went from nearly-promoted to nearly-relegated in the space of a year.
The EFL Championship promotion race has the ability to be the most unpredictable story in the world of soccer, and that’s what gives it so much intrigue. With all this being said, let’s have a look at some of the favorites to reach the big-time come May 2019.
Derby County
Derby County have been a team of drastic change over the past few seasons. In the past three years, they have had Steve McClaren (twice), Paul Clement, Nigel Pearson, Gary Rowett and now Frank Lampard as their manager. The owners of the ‘Rams’ have been suffering from chronic itchy feet in their chase for promotion. The club nearly collapsed after their relegation to the Championship in 2002. They were sold for £3 when they were at their lowest point financially in 2003. In the two seasons that followed, they went from 20th to 4th and got to the playoff semi-final in 2005. They were nearly relegated again the following season before then reaching the Premier League in 2007. Under Paul Jewell, they endured what was the worst single-season performance the division had ever season, winning just one of their 38 games.
Since then, they’ve managed to steady the boat and become a solid Championship team. The only problem is that they couldn’t jump the final hurdle in promotion. This season, they have Chelsea legend Frank Lampard as their manager. As a player, he was one of the finest midfielders ever produced by England. As a TV pundit, he was articulate and provided in-depth analysis. He is entirely unproven as a manager, however. Looking at their roster, Jack Marriott looks a quality signing from Peterborough. Matej Vydra (if he stays) is as good a striker as you will find in the division. Wise heads like Cameron Jerome, Tom Huddlestone and Richard Keogh will provide leadership throughout the 46 league matches. If Lampard can provide quality football which his players are definitely capable of, there’s no reason why Derby County won’t be in the Championship promotion race in 9 months time.
Stoke City
Stoke were pretty bad last season. There’s no other way to put it. After Mark Hughes was sacked, Paul Lambert was probably the most underwhelming replacement they could’ve hired and couldn’t inspire the ‘Potters’ to safety. That being said, Stoke have done a good job building a team for the Championship. While Xherdan Shaqiri, Ramadan Sobhi and Marc Muniesa were sold, new manager Gary Rowett has brought in the likes of Tom Ince, Benik Afobe and James McClean.
What makes the team stand out though, is the players they managed to keep hold of. Jack Butland, Ryan Shawcross, Josh Tymon, Joe Allen, Bruno Martins Indi, Erik Choupo-Moting, the list goes on and on. On paper, this is a Premier League squad. On paper, they could push for a top-half finish in the top division. But soccer isn’t played on paper. Stoke are the bookmakers favorites to win the league, but a lot can happen in a 46-game season.
Their new additions to the squad are certainly promising and although the Stoke fans will be understandably frustrated that their owners wouldn’t splash the cash while they were in the Premier League, they are certainly doing their bit to bring the team back to where they will feel they belong, and there is no better manager than new coach Gary Rowett to help them do that.
West Bromwich Albion
It can be difficult to just start winning again after losing so much. The transition from Premier League to Championship can often be defined by mentality as much as any player or manager. Sunderland, Wigan and Blackburn are all recent examples of teams who ended up in League One in the space of a couple of seasons after relegation from the Premier League. Blackpool and Portsmouth even went down to League Two. West Brom shouldn’t have the same problem. In Darren Moore, the team has a coach they will fight for, the fans have a coach who is like family to them and the board have a coach who is low-maintenance and won’t get involved in media feuds.
While they have lost players such as Jonny Evans, James McClean and Ben Foster, Sam Johnstone and Kyle Bartley will be valuable additions to the team. They are certainly a level beneath Stoke as far as squads go, but West Brom have always been underdogs, and still prevailed more often than not. If they hold onto Salomon Rondón, they may well have the best striker in the division. Ahmed Hegazi, Jake Livermore and Gareth Barry can all offer the defensive prowess necessary to succeed in the Championship, and Jay Rodriguez and Jonathan Leko can certainly cause problems for any defense they face. What might excite the ‘Baggies’ fans the most though, is the idea of playing nice, attacking football.
Preston North End
This may be a bit of an outside shout but Preston will definitely have teams shaking in their boots if they play to their potential. Preston were 7th last season, and 2 points off a playoff spot with Derby County trumping them to the final shot at promotion. Since then, the only notable departure has been Greg Cunningham leaving for Premier League newbies Cardiff City.
They added Graham Burke, Ryan Ledson and Andrew Hughes to their books and the fact that the fact that they have an average age of just over 25 years old, it’s easy to see why the Deepdale faithful can be optimistic heading into the new season. Alex Neil has proven himself to be the perfect manager for the young team and the likes of Alan Browne, Seani Maguire and Callum Robinson will all give any Championship team a run for their money. This team has an unspotted advantage though.
Unlike their rivals, they have the have little expectation or pressure on their shoulders while teams such as Stoke, Middlesbrough and Derby will all expect to be in the playoffs. Preston should expect themselves to be a Premier League team in the next three years, barring a crisis of injuries or an exodus of players. If they can get themselves promoted this season though, that’s just a bonus.
Middlesbrough
A lot can change in a year. Since their relegation after one season in the Premier League, Middlesbrough have sacked two managers, bought and sold before and behind them and now they have one season to get back into the top flight. The Championship promotion race can be unforgiving and cruel. There was nothing wrong with the Middlesbrough team of the past few seasons. Despite selling Adam Forshaw, Jordan Rhodes and Marten de Roon, they were always in contention to be promoted straight back to the Premier League.
While they haven’t strengthened their squad a huge amount this summer, sticking to just one manager this season could be all that Middlesbrough need to propel themselves back into the big-time. Tony Pulis is without a doubt a Premier League manager. His teams aren’t the most exciting to watch and they won’t be knocking in three or four goals every game, but they always maintain a steady foundation and will rarely concede sloppy goals. Playing in this fashion would make a transition to the Premier League considerably easier. If Ben Gibson stays with Middlesbrough this season, they should be knocking on the door of promotion at the end of the season.
Swansea City
The Welsh outfit were unfortunate at times in the relegation campaign. Losing Fernando Llorente at the start of the season was a massive blow. Tammy Abraham is a good player but his inexperience showed when he only scored once in the team’s last 11 games. Wilfried Bony suffered with injuries and poor form throughout the season. Renato Sanches looked an amazing signing on Paul Clement’s part at the start of the season but he was a shadow of the player he was at Euro 2016. They sold Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton too, and from once the season started they looked pretty poor for a long stretch of the season. After they sacked Paul Clement and brought in Carlos Carvalhal, Swansea looked rejuvenated. The players did everything they could for him and they fell agonisingly short in their pursuit of Southampton and safety.
The Championship promotion race will ask different questions of the squad. They sold many of their best players and replacing them with what they have will undoubtedly be a difficult task. Lukas Fabianski, Andre Ayew, Ki Sung-Yong and Roque Mesa are all good players and Swansea haven’t replaced them with like-for-like substitutes. Swansea could be in a lot of difficulty if the players that have stayed don’t perform week in, week out for the course of the season. However, if they do, and they buy into new manager Graham Potters’ philosophy, they will be in with a shout at the end of the season.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa have thrown money at players since their relegation in 2016. They seemed to be much more comfortable in their own skins after Roberto di Matteo was sacked. This summer, Villa were linked with Arsenal and Barcelona legend and Belgium’s World Cup assistant manager Thierry Henry. They then assured the public that they remain supportive of Steve Bruce. The club has seen financial difficulties in the past few months and their owner, Dr. Tony Xia, sold 55% of the club that he bought only two years ago. The club, financially speaking, desperately needs to get back to the Premier League. They’ve spent nearly €90m since their relegation to the Championship, and they have one play-off final to show for it.
The squad itself is much different to that of last season because of retirements and the ending of loans. John Terry, Axel Tuanzebe, Sam Johnstone, Chris Samba, Gabriel Agbonlahor and Jordan Amavi have all left the club this summer. All they have to show is the loan deal for Atletico Madird keeper André Morreira. A club with the stature and history of Aston Villa should be in the Premier League. A manager with the experience and knowledge of Steve Bruce should be in the Premier League. As it stands, the squad isn’t ready to make a serious push for promotion. The players could however, have lots more to show us that we have yet to see. This season could define the next decade for Aston Villa, so they will be hoping to get the better of the Championship promotion race this time around.
Honourable mentions:
Leeds United
Bringing in a manager as respected as Marcelo Bielsa on its own individual merit is enough to throw Leeds into the Championship promotion race.
Reading
New manager Paul Clement has been thrifty with signings such as David Meyler, John O’Shea and Sam Baldock.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United were looking at automatic promotion for a good portion of the season, straight after their promotion from League One. Another season in the Championship could give them the boost they need to keep up that form.
Any thoughts on who will be promoted? Hit me up on Twitter @OB_PerSources or IG @OB_PerSources
All statistics via transfermarkt.com, unless otherwise stated.