Ever since Brandon Jennings tweeted “Bucks in 8 lol” after failing to defeat LeBron James and the Miami Heat in the playoffs, we’ve been making the same joke every year. Bucks in 8, Bucks in 8, Bucks in 8. We all expect the 2018-2019 Milwaukee Bucks to finally win their first round playoff matchup. However, we are going to analyze how good the Bucks actually are and what their true potential is.
First, let’s recap the 2018-2019 Milwaukee Bucks’ regular season.
As Per Sources fans know, I’ve always been a big Mike Budenholzer fan. I mentioned in the off season that he was the biggest free agent signing. As it turns out, I was right.
The Bucks finished with a league best 60-22, with 33 wins at home and 27 on the road. The Bucks have beaten every team once this season except the mighty Phoenix Suns. They also have not lost three games in a row. Teams that do that, usually win championships.
The Bucks ranked fourth in offensive rating and first in defensive rating. They’ve also surprised the league by improving in several statistical categories.
The Bucks finished first in the league in PTS and REB. They also finished 2nd in 3PM, 3rd in FGM, and 2nd in BLK . They also move the ball pretty well, finishing 7th in AST.
Analyzing the 2018-2019 Milwaukee Bucks on defense:
Mike Budenholzer’s ability to get the most out of his players has vastly improved the Bucks on the defensive end. They rank first in defensive rating and defensive rating. They also rank 2nd in blocks and 17th in steals, which tells me they’re more focused on keeping their man in front of them rather than cheating for steals.
The Bucks rank 2nd in the least amount of points allowed off turnovers and 5th limiting 2nd chance points. They’re also the best in the league at limiting opponent fast break points and points in the paint.
If you’re going to beat the Bucks, you’re going to need to do it by creating confusion and shooting threes.
Analyzing the 2018-2019 Milwaukee Bucks on offense:
The Bucks score 60.1% of their FGM assisted, which ranks them 15th in the NBA. For reference, the Rockets rank 28th, while the Warriors and Nuggets rank 1st and 2nd in this category. They rank 16th in unassisted FGM For reference, the Knicks and Cavaliers are first in this category. Worth noting, the Pistons are 8th in this category.
I would not want to rank highly in unassisted FGM, but some playoff teams rank even higher than the Bucks; including the Thunder, Pistons, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers, and Nets. The Warriors and Nuggets are at the bottom of this list.
The Bucks also rank 18th in assisted 3PM, and 13th in unassisted 3PM.
Analyzing the Bucks’ potential weaknesses.
We know the old saying, “defense wins championships” The Bucks have that covered. Their roster also has the perfect blend needed to win a championship. They have veterans, young legs, and a rising MVP candidate in Giannis Antetokounmpo. They seem to have all the tools to make it out of the Eastern Conference.
What does concern me, is how heavily they rely on Giannis Antetokounmpo, despite not having a trust worthy jump shot.
The Cavaliers ranked 11th last season in unassisted FGM, lead by LeBron James, and were swept by the Golden State Warriors. Granted, the Cavaliers were one of the worst defensive teams last season.
The Bucks may have to go through the Celtics and Raptors, who rank 6th and 5th in defensive rating. The Raptors rank 5th in offensive rating, while the up and down Celtics still managed to finish 10th. The point is, they may have to face two teams who are very tough on both ends of the court. In addition to that, the 76ers rank 3rd, the Celtics rank 8th, and the Raptors rank 15th in assisted field goals. All of which rank higher than the Bucks in that category.
In addition to that, the Celtics and Raptors are both top 8 3PM shooting teams. The Bucks ranked last in the league at defending the three point shot this season.
Worth noting, the Bucks are also dealing with a few injuries.
So, how far can the Bucks make it in the playoffs?
The Bucks’ defensive scheme reminds me a lot of what I’ve seen from Billy Donovan lead defenses. Unlike the Pistons and Jazz who run their opponents off the three point line, they’re essentially trying to switch often and keep you from penetrating. Historically speaking, jump shooting teams don’t win championships. Many of Budenholzer’s concepts are taken from what made Gregg Popovich successful.
However, the Brad Stevens may be the best coach in the league at putting perimeter defenders in rotation. The Celtics run many pick & rolls and pick & pops, trying to get the matchups they want. At their best, the Celtics are the worst match up in the Eastern Conference for the Milwaukee Bucks.
My opinion could change based on seeing how the Bucks perform in the playoffs while dealing with injuries. I’ve also yet to see playoff Nikola Mirotic in action yet. However, as of right now, I believe the Bucks could be a 2nd round exit if they face the Boston Celtics. That is of course, assuming that the Boston Celtics are playing like a Brad Stevens lead offense.
Even if they manage to get past the Celtics because of their interior defensive issues, the Raptors and Marc Gasol won’t have that problem.
There is a big part of me that thinks the Bucks could go to the NBA finals. My three biggest worries are related to their perimeter defense, Antetokounmpo’s shooting, and their ball movement at times when the defense picks up.
For that reason, as of right now, I do not have them going to the NBA Finals just yet.
Is Giannis the best player in the Eastern Conference? Do you think the Bucks can overcome their glaring weaknesses? Tweet me @TPRx11