With March Madness’ arrival, the popularity around college basketball is skyrocketing. Individuals who don’t usually follow the college level of the sport are now begging to tune in. What usually happens during the tournament is fans and scouts begin to overvalue players who break out during March Madness.
My job with the draft board is to break down high-level college players and give fans an opportunity to properly understand how good (or bad) these players are, predict how good (or bad) the player will be at the next level, and show what team would fit that players talent the best. With that being said, let’s take an in-depth look at one of the college basketball’s most polarizing stars, RJ Barrett.
Scoring
In Barrett’s freshman season, he averaged 23.4 PPG on 45% from the field. What’s most surprising about Barrett’s statistical output is how he’s scoring the ball. Throughout high school, RJ was an above-average shooter from 3PT and an excellent slasher. In college, it’s more of the same.
Somehow, with Barrett being extremely slender, he’s able to finish consistently in traffic. At 6’7″, he’s also able to shoot over his defender constantly. What RJ has done at Duke opposed to his time at Monte Verde Academy is establish a back-to-the-basket game.
He often abuses his length when he gets a smaller guard on him and either attacks the hoop viciously or hits a 15-foot turn-around from the post. Barrett is also shooting a very average 31% from 3PT, but it’s on a very high volume, so the percentage is lower than his actual ability.
Although Barrett’s numbers are impressive, you can’t overlook his selfishness. Barrett leads the ACC in shot attempts per game. Often you can see him going off for 30-10-10 or 20 points on 10-35 shooting with 10 turnovers. He lacks consistency.
Barrett also lacks the coveted “clutch” gene. Early in the season, RJ struggled in the second half and even shot Duke out of many crucial games. Against Gonzaga, RJ took four extremely contested shots with 30 seconds left, down by two, costing Duke a very crucial early-season game. He also shot 10-25 and had five turnovers, one in the last minute. In the first game against UNC, Barrett shot 10-24 with four turnovers. In the ACC championship, RJ also shot a terrible 5-15 with five more turnovers.
All in all, Barrett’s ability to score is elite. If he can become consistent, he’ll be a major problem at the next level.
Playmaking
Where RJ truly shows his potential is his ability to play-make. He’s averaging 4.2 APG. Unlike his PPG, his APG doesn’t tell the full story. Barrett has tremendous court vision. He can see the floor extremely well. This leads to him making extremely difficult passes that literally no one else in college can make.
The only real worry with RJ being a primary ball handler is his assist-to-turnover ratio. Barrett is second in the ACC in turnovers and only fourth in total assists. Playing against NBA-level talent, RJ can’t afford to turn the ball over three times a game, like he’s doing in his singular season at Duke.
Training with Steve Nash at a young age helped catapult to what RJ is today. If he can lower his turnover rate, Barrett can become an elite playmaker in the NBA.
Playing Off-Ball Offense
One of RJ Barrett’s glaring weaknesses is his ability to play off-the-ball. RJ almost has an inability to succeed on offense without the ball in his hands. He shoots an abysmal 27% in catch-and-shoot situations from 17 feet and beyond. He also tends to either stay in one spot on the court or walk to his spots. It really hinders Duke’s offensive capabilities. Essentially, RJ needs the ball in his hands in order to be
Offensive Recap
Barrett is one of the most well-rounded offensive prospects this year. If he learns to have a better shot selection and how to play better off-ball, he can become an elite and efficient scorer in the NBA. Being 6’7″ with a nearly seven-foot wingspan will give RJ the ability to become a versatile offensive weapon.
RJ could also limit his turnovers and catapult himself to one of the best combo guards in the NBA when he’s drafted. As of right now, though, Barrett is an inconsistent and erratic scorer on a very talented Duke team. He’ll either be your best player or worst on the offensive end. There’s no in-between with Barrett, and his inconstancy may cost Duke a championship.
On-Ball Defense
By far, the least enticing part of Barrett’s game is his inability to play any form of defense. It’s not that he’s not capable to be an elite defender, he lacks the effort. He consonantly gets blown by or bodied up by a below-average college player. He may average a little under a steal per game, but with his length and explosiveness, he should be averaging at least two or three.
When RJ does decide to play defense, he turns into a complete monster. There aren’t any statistical outputs to dictate this, but the eye-test shows when RJ invests effort he becomes Duke’s best on-ball defender.
Off-Ball Defense
Barrett’s criticism while playing defense off-ball is essentially the same as his on-ball defensive capabilities. He’s a very lazy defender in every sense of the word. He’ll get lost on cuts and slowly walk to his man or just watch the opposing player run by him. On fast breaks, Barrett simply walks back down the court while everyone else is in a full sprint. When he does apply effort, he does have a decent ability to jump passes and take it all the way. However, those situations aren’t very often.
Defensive Recap
RJ Barrett has all the potential in the world to become a great defender. His height and wingspan should allow him to dominate lower level players defensively. However, RJ doesn’t have the drive to do so. Instead, he’s one of the worst on-ball defenders in the ACC. His defensive limitations have cost Duke multiple times. Taking a transition to the next level, RJ is going to struggle immensely.
Strengths
- Ability to score on all three levels.
- High basketball IQ.
- Excellent passer.
- Good handles for a long combo guard.
- Immense defensive potential.
Weaknesses
- Applies zero effort on the defensive end.
- Bad shot selection.
- Lacks the ability to play off-ball.
- Turnover issues.
- Extremely selfish.
Player Comparisons
Ceiling: James Harden/DeMar DeRozan
Stick with me here. I understand James Harden is an MVP (possible multiple time MVP), but all that’s being said is Barrett’s play-style and possible success could emulate that of Harden’s. Both Harden and Barrett are excellent scorers who have the capability to create for their teammates. They both thrive with the ball in their hands, as well as being extremely lazy defenders even though they have the capability to be serviceable at that end of the floor. Barrett could easily have the same level of success as a young James Harden
With DeRozan, he’s not quite elite, but he’s an excellent NBA player. Both DeRozan and Barrett love the turn-around 15-footers from the post and struggle with turnovers. DeRozan also is an average, at best, 3PT shooter, like Barrett.
If Barrett’s career goes as planned, he could easily be as good, if not better, than both DeRozan and Harden. Being a long 6’7″ guard, Barrett could easily polish his gave over time and thrive where both Harden and DeRozan don’t.
Floor: Tyreke Evans/Evan Turner
At worst, Barrett could have the same level of production as Turner and Evans. Both are serviceable role players that have similar playstyles to Barrett. Evans and Turner are above-average when finishing at the rim, basically the same level where RJ will be coming into the NBA as a rookie. Both struggle shooting the three, never shooting above 38% from 3PT in a single season. They’re both also decent playmakers like Barrett but struggle with turnovers, which ultimately limits their production.
Player Comparison Recap
Barrett is a low-risk, high-reward prospect. He already has the essential tools to be a valuable role player on a contending team at 19 years old. If he doesn’t progress at all, he’ll be a decent sixth man for years to come. However, if RJ puts in the work and develops his game, he can be an elite NBA player.
Best Fit for RJ Barrett
Currently, Barrett is slotted to go as the second overall pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Even though Cleveland can be a great scenario for RJ, with every team atop the lottery tanking, it’s hard to predict where he’ll go. So, to show what team would be best for RJ, we’ll look at the teams picking above or below where Barrett is slotted to be picked, as well as where he’s slotted to go now.
#1 Overall Pick – New York Knicks
Even though the Knicks don’t have a locked position on their roster, RJ wouldn’t fit well with Coach Fizdale’s system. Playing SG, RJ wouldn’t have the balls in his hands a ton, essentially being limited to a catch-and-shoot player with limited opportunities to put the ball on the ground. Even if Coach Fizdale allows Barrett the opportunity to be the primary ball handler, the floor spacing would be terrible. This would result in clogged driving lanes, double-teams, and an influx of turnovers.
Even if the Knicks sign Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Barrett would be the odd man out. With Durant and Irving being proven NBA stars, Fizdale would likely allow them to be the primary ball handlers over Barrett.
Out of all three teams that’ll be discussed, the Knicks are the worst situation. With Dennis Smith Jr. being an established young PG and Fizdale liking his SGs to be elite shooters, it’s just a bad fit for RJ’s playstyle. It’d not only limit his growth, but it’d also create unwanted media attention to a player who still has a lot
#2 Overall Pick – Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are, by far, the best fit for Barrett’s skills. With low expectations and limited cap room, the team RJ would be apart of would be very similar to the roster constructed now. With the Cavaliers being relatively bad and young, Barrett would be able to do whatever he wants on the court, similar to Collin Sexton this year.
Speaking of Sexton, some may say he needs to be the primary ball handler to be successful. In reality, after the All-Star break, Sexton has been excelling off-the-ball. Sexton has the ability to catch-and-shoot from three, shooting 38% on catch-and-shoot 3PTs post-All-Star break. He also has a high basketball IQ, so he makes crisp cuts, giving RJ easy assists.
Sexton’s usage rate will go down, but it isn’t a huge deal. Sexton and Barrett would easily become one of the leagues best young backcourts. With the Cavaliers roster also being surrounded by shooters, Barrett will have the space to create and score on his own.
With the combination of limited pressure and the ability to lead an offense, Cleveland becomes the best place for Barrett to start his NBA career. He’d be able to have a good backcourt mate in Sexton, as well as having shooters surrounding him with every line-up. This would help in his growth and allow Barrett to become one of the league’s best young players early in his rookie season.
#3 Overall Pick – Phoenix Suns
The Suns are very interesting when it comes to potentially selecting Barrett. Having Devin Booker, the need for
What Barrett lacks in shooting, Booker makes up. Booker is easily one of the best 3PT-shooters in the league on the catch and may thrive due to Barrett’s arrival. It’d
The only downside is both Barrett and Booker struggle defensively, and coach Kokoskov may look to add a better shooter and a better defender to better compliment Booker.
If the Suns do select Barrett, RJ and Booker would be one of the NBA’s best offensive backcourts. The Suns would have a young core of Booker, Barrett, and Ayton, along with excellent young, emerging role players. This move for Phoenix would be amazing, but for Barrett, playing alongside Booker could either progress him faster or stunt his growth.
Final Thoughts
Without a doubt, Barrett is one of the best prospects in the 2019 draft class. Despite his glaring flaws, if a GM has to choose between Barrett and any other player in the draft not named Zion Williamson, they’ll take Barrett. If he lands in a good scenario where he can develop and work on his strengths and weaknesses, Barrett could easily become one of the best players in the NBA. If not, Barrett will be a quality NBA player for many years.
Let me know what player you want me to do next!
Twitter: @hawk_persources