Every season, the fans and media have the teams that are expected to be playoff locks. On the other side, we have teams that we expect to be lottery locks. For me, the Thunder were a team I expected to be one of the best in the NBA. But, if their season has shown us anything, it’s how hot they started their season, and how cold they are about to end it.
The Thunder are a team that I certainly expected to be in the upper end of the West’s elite. When you have two top-10 players in PG Russell Westbrook and SF Paul George, expectations are always going to be high. The Thunder, for the most part, have kept that standard and performed generally well in the very tough West. However, since the All-Star break, they simply haven’t been the same team. Why?
Team Record
Prior to the break, the Thunder were 37-20. This record was third in the West behind the Warriors (41-16) and Nuggets (39-18). To put into perspective how much of a decline they’ve experienced, Golden State and Denver are both still atop of the conference. Meanwhile, the Thunder have clinched a playoff spot, but are eigh
Scoring
Let’s start with shooting. The Thunder are a team that haven’t necessarily been the best when it comes to shooting the rock. Despite that, they’re still an above-average team, at least before the All-Star break. Before the break, the Thunder were 15th in the league in FG% with 46.2%. At that time, Russell Westbrook was taking a backseat to then-MVP-candidate Paul George (to be discussed later on).
But, fast forward to now, the Thunder are an abysmal shooting team. In 22 games post-All-Star Game, the Thunder are shooting 42.7% from the field. That’s dead LAST in the NBA. Of all currently qualified playoff teams, the Thunder shoot the worst of them all.
In addition to the shooting of the Thunder comes their overall play. Plus/minus is a stat that measures how much a team outscores or gets outscored by their opponents. A positive plus/minus indicates that a team has been outscoring their opponents in the alotted period of time. A negative plus/minus indicates the opposite.
Before the break, the Thunder had a plus/minus of 5.2, fifth-best in the NBA. Now, the Thunder have a plus/minus of -2.4, good for 20th in the league. This is once again the worst among currently qualified playoff teams.
Paul George Is No Longer An MVP Candidate
Earlier this season, I was a strong advocate for Paul George and his case for the MVP award. Now, that’s certainly not the case. According to some sources, George is apparently having issues with his shoulder which is leading him to play the way he is. Nonetheless, George is also a part of this OKC decline because of the way he’s performed as a whole. In a year where he is the go-to option in most situations, this impacts the team hard.
Pre All-Star Paul George
As I stated previously, pre-All-Star Paul George was an MVP candidate. He averaged 28.7 PPG (second in the league at the time). He did that while shooting at a 45% clip,
Post All-Star Paul George
22 games after the All-Star break, George simply isn’t the same player. He’s averaging 26.3 points (-2.4), shooting at 41% (-4) from the field, and 34% (-7) from 3PT.
What does this tell us? When Paul George is struggling, it trickles down to the rest of the team. George went from a bonafide top-three MVP candidate to being overshadowed by the likes of Steph Curry and even Joel Embiid. To many, numbers don’t tell the whole story, but in this case, they do. A decreased level of performance for Paul George is in exact correlation with the struggles of the team.
Whether it’s a nagging injury or something within the circle of the team, Paul George is simply not the same. But, when one of your best players are struggling, it’s expected that someone steps up, right? In the Thunder’s case, that player should be Russell Westbrook, and he surely has been the only bright spot for the post-All-Star Thunde.
A Bright Spot: Russell Westbrook
Before anything is discussed, Russell Westbrook should without a doubt be an MVP candidate. No player averaging a triple-double (let alone for three straight seasons) should ever be left out of the conversation. Despite that, we’re here to discuss the decline of the Thunder. And Westbrook,
It’s safe to say that Westbrook has been struggling shooting-wise all season long. But, because he can contribute to the team in more ways than that, he has still had a good season, in my opinion. Prior to the All-Star break, Westbrook was still averaging a triple-double. However, what catches my eye is his 42% from the field and his awful 25% from 3PT. On top of that, he shot only 66% from the FT-line and averaged five turnovers.
Westbrook has actually IMPROVED since then. Although they’re slight increases, they indicate improvement nonetheless. His field goal percentage is back up to 44%. He’s shooting drastically better from behind the arc at 34%. Most importantly, he’s turning the ball over less.
Although this article is supposed to only discuss the struggles of the Thunder. It must be noted that not all things are to be panicked about in Oklahoma City. On a team with as many struggles as the Thunder are having, it must be soothing to their fans to know that their former MVP has, in fact, stepped up his game.
What’s Next?
The Thunder’s struggles have landed them in a huge situation playoff-wise. They’re battling to get the best seeding possible, which at this point in the season, is the sixth seed. Their remaining games have them going up against the Timberwolves, Rockets, and Bucks. Minnesota should be a win for this squad, but then they move on to face the NBA’s leading MVP candidates. If they keep playing like they have late in the season, they’ll be due to be the eighth seed.
Being the eighth seed means they’ll have to face the Golden State Warriors. Facing the Warriors so early puts the Thunder at a massive disadvantage, as we all know how the Warriors flip the switch when the lights are brightest.
No matter what seed the Thunder end up clinching, there’s no doubt that they should’ve easily been fourth in the West. The many different stats discussed previously reflect the straight decline that OKC has faced since the All-Star break. If anything is clear, it’s that if Paul George returns to MVP form, while keeping Russell Westbrook at the level he’s playing at, it’ll spread to the rest of the team. From there, Oklahoma City will once again be a force in the West. And, who knows, maybe they’ll knock off Golden State in the first round.