The intensity across the NBA is picking up as the second round of the playoffs are underway. Two of the NBA’s funnest teams to watch, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Denver Nuggets, are about to face off. Unlike the Trail Blazers, the Nuggets struggled to get past their first round match up.
Fans are high on the 2019 Trail Blazers, especially after Lillard’s recent success. The Trail Blazers are also much more playoff battle tested than the young Nuggets.
In order to help determine who will win this series, we are going to thoroughly analyze both the Trail Blazers and Nuggets
Analyzing the 2019 Trail Blazers:
The Trail Blazers continued their regular season success, finishing as the third seed in the Western Conference once again. They were once of the better teams at home, and just as average as Denver was on the road.
Taking a deeper look at the 2019 Trail Blazers’ regular season advanced stats:
The Blazers finished third in offensive rating, and 16th in defensive rating. They finished 27th in assisted field goals made and 4th in unassisted field goals made. For reference, OKC was 26th and 5th in those respective categories. The only teams more ‘selfish’ than the Trail Blazers are the Rockets, Cavaliers, and Knicks. In my opinion, this is the first red flag I see.
The Blazers finished 17th in 3PM, unlike the Rockets who finished 1st in this category. However, they did finish 9th in 3P%.
The Blazers protect the paint relatively well. However, they do struggle vs 2nd chance points and fast break points.
Analyzing the 2019 Denver Nuggets:
The Nuggets were the best team at home this season, finishing 34-7. Despite their average road record, they were able to finish second in the Western Conference. Despite their regular season success, their youth and struggles vs San Antonio have critics doubting their playoff potential.
Taking a deeper look at the 2019 Nuggets’ regular season advanced stats:
The Nuggets finished 7th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating. However, my favorite thing about the Nuggets is how they play the game of basketball.
Not only are they built around an all-star center, but they are a very selfless team. They Nuggets finished only second to the Warriors in terms of assisted field goals made. When the Nuggets move the ball, they are very hard to beat.
They finished just behind the Trail Blazers in 3PM. However, they were a lot less efficient from the 3, finishing 17th in the NBA. Although they are not known as an elite defensive team, the Nuggets are really good at eliminating second chance points and getting back in transition.
Analyzing the Trail Blazers and Nuggets using the eye ball test:
The Nuggets are Trail Blazers are very different, yet similar in so many ways. Both teams are built around two great combo guards and a talented center. However, the Blazers’ offense relies on elite guard play & pick and rolls while the Nuggets rely on selfless ball movement generated from the high post.
Both Damian Lillard and Nikola Jokic are MVP candidates. Both CJ McCollum and Jamal Murray are great guards, yet can be inconsistent.
The Trail Blazers’ most glaring hurdle is their injuries. The Nuggets’ most glaring hurdle is their youth.
So who has a better chance of winning?
The Rockets Jazz series already taught us that a team that ranks bottom of the league in assisted field goals made can beat a team that ranks at the top of the league in assisted field goals made. That series also taught us the value of youth vs elite guard play.
However, last year’s playoffs also showed us some of Portland’s weaknesses as well when dealing with an elite big man. Steven Adams, unlike Nikola Jokic, was not capable of generating his own offense.
In my opinion, the Nuggets have the tools to beat the Trail Blazers. The only question is, will those tools show up? Paul Milsap can guard against the pick and roll. However, are the Nuggets’ guards disciplined enough to minimize Portland’s guards without fouling?
Jokic, who finished 2nd on my top 10 centers of 2019 list, is capable of dropping 40 vs Kanter, Collins, and whoever else the Blazers throw at him. However, will he continue to be assertive like he has been of late?
In my opinion, at both teams’ best, the Nuggets should be able to decimate the Trail Blazers in 5 or 6 games. The only variable that I cannot predict is whether Denver’s youth will prevent them from winning on the road. This is a problem that I do not expect Lillard and company to struggle with as much.
This is more than Lillard vs Jokic. This is more than going down the list and naming players. These are two teams, with two completely different systems, going head to head in an epic battle.
In summary, I have high hopes for the Denver Nuggets. I will be rooting for both teams though. Curious to hear your thoughts. Tweet me @TPRx11