*Gasp* “Khris Middleton got how much?”
Milwaukee Bucks wing Khris Middleton made $13 million in base pay from his contract in 2018-19. That’s no chump change, but perhaps it’s an underpay given his status as an All-Star. Milwaukee, the loving franchise that they are, compensated by giving him a five-year $178 million deal in the offseason. Whether or not Middleton is actually worth that much is a different discussion (he’s not), but he certainly comes away from that meeting feeling satisfied. In one offseason, he went from being owed $13 million a year to $35.6 million a year.
Most people don’t get an additional $23 million annually when they ask their boss for a raise. That type of stuff happens regularly in the NBA, though, where breakout years can net players a whole lot of extra cash. Here are the 2020 NBA free agents up for the biggest pay raises this summer.
Brandon Ingram
Ingram is a restricted free agent this year, which honestly means nothing in this case. He’s an easy max-out player and a no brainer for a new deal. Restricted free agency means the Pelicans have the right to match any contract other teams throw at him. So, even if Ingram would rather drink bleach than play in New Orleans, he has no choice but to re-sign if the Pelicans are willing to pay the same amount or more than other teams are offering.
In some years, teams play a game where they let the market determine a player’s value. For example, in 2017 the Washington Wizards didn’t give Otto Porter Jr. a legitimate offer until Porter agreed to a four-year deal worth a bit over $100 million with the Sacramento Kings. It was only then that the Wizards matched that deal and offered Porter four years and $107 million. Washington’s plan was to re-sign Porter all along, but they weren’t going to give him more than what other teams were willing to pay him.
The NBA would need to revoke the Pelicans’ status as a franchise if they tried playing the same game with Ingram. He just made his first All-Star game at 22, averaging 24.8/6.3/4.3 on 47.6/40.0 shooting splits. He’s averaging the most points per game a restricted free agent ever has in an NBA history. New Orleans can offer him five years and $167 million. Given that no unforeseen catastrophic injury strikes, the Pelicans should have no qualms about inking a potential top-10 player to that deal. Compare that to the $7.6 million Ingram makes this year on his rookie contract, and that’s quite the pay raise.
Malik Beasley
We always knew Beasley had talent. But, buried on the Nuggets’ neverending bench of quality NBA players, there just weren’t enough minutes. With the Timberwolves, however, Beasley has finally had enough burn to show what he’s capable of. 21.1/5.8/2.3 on 44.6/40.8 are borderline All-Star numbers, and even if it’s only been eight games, it’s an indicator of the star potential he’s always had.
The 40.8% from three is particularly crazy given that Beasley’s shooting 9.5 threes a game. That’s the fourth-most threes attempted per game among all NBA players. 40.8% is probably an unsustainable clip, but there’s a great chance Beasley can maintain the volume. He gets his shot off quickly and smoothly, and if he can shoot above 35% from three on with similar volume he’s an easy 20 PPG scorer.
Like Ingram, Beasley is a restricted free agent. Unlike Ingram, however, Beasley’s market value isn’t clear yet. Some teams like the Knicks might be desperate enough to throw a max at Beasley. It’s likely that his hot shooting will taper off, but he could still be worth the gamble for a talent-starved team. It doesn’t matter if 28 other teams are only willing to give Beasley $10 million a year. As long as there’s a GM out there offering $25 million-plus, Beasley will bite. Then, the Timberwolves will be forced to either match that deal or let Beasley walk for nothing.
In a realistic scenario, Beasley’s numbers probably look something like 18 points per game on 45 FG% and 37 3PT% with the Wolves. Terry Rozier signed for three years and $56.7 million last summer, and Beasley’s much more promising than Rozier. Still 23 years old, Beasley’s next deal could range from $15 million annually to nearly $30 million. Either way, that’s a good deal more than the $2.7 million he’ll make this year.
Christian Wood
Why aren’t more people talking about Christian Wood, again? Aside from playing for the forever mediocre Pistons, there’s no reason why fans shouldn’t be more excited for Wood. The 24-year-old power forward averaged 19.1 points and 9.0 rebounds in February after Andre Drummond was traded. He’s even shot 39% from three on 3.7 attempts per game, giving him even more upside as an offensive weapon. Wood’s led the Pistons in box plus/minus this year, over players like Derrick Rose and Drummond. With Luke Kennard still recuperating from his knee injury, Wood’s the most exciting player on the Pistons moving forward.
Even if it’s just ’empty stats’, there’s something to be said about an athletic 6’10” big who can shoot threes and is a dunking machine. It’s not like last month has been just a hot shooting stretch either. Wood’s a career 35.6% shooter from three. He’s mostly struggled to find minutes in the past due to poor decision-making and court awareness issues but has consistently shown flashes of stardom. He averaged 16.9 PPG in eight games with the Pelicans last year but was still an afterthought in free agency, only receiving a one-year deal for $1.6 million with Detroit.
When you look at Wood’s career per 36 minute numbers, it’s clear that he has star talent. 20.7/10.9/1.6 on 53.3/35.6 is no joke, and he’s been putting up nearly identical numbers the last month in just 31.2 minutes a game. His future in the league will depend on the subtleties and intangibles. Timely rotations on defense, solid screen-setting, court awareness, this is the less glamorous side of basketball that doesn’t show up in the stat sheet. However, these are also skills that keep players in the league and are the hallmarks of a truly valuable big man in the NBA that Wood has yet to master.
Wood’s shown enough in the last dozen game to warrant more than just a second look in free agency. As an unrestricted free agent, he’s free to sign wherever he wants. The Pistons would be wise to try and snatch him up on a long-term deal for cheap, such as four years and $40 million. For Wood, a player who has been on five different teams in as many years, the stability of a long-term contract may be tempting. He was even out of the NBA entirely for a year and had to scratch and claw his way to every contract signed. But, with the offensive versatility Wood has displayed so far, he has possibly one of the rarest skillsets in the NBA.
If Wood pans out, he’d be worth at least $25 million a year. Even a talent-starved center-hungry team like the Charlotte Hornets wouldn’t take as big of a risk as signing Wood to a long-term contract of that value, however. It’s also extremely doubtful Wood would get a one or two-year deal for a similar amount, given the rarity of those contracts for young players in the NBA. It’s more likely that Wood will sign on for the first scenario and either be massively underpaid in a few years or be trade fodder if he doesn’t fulfill his potential. Either way, it’s a massive upgrade from the $1.6 million Wood earned this year.
Fred VanVleet
Good God, Fred VanVleet’s about to get $30 million a year this offseason. If that sounds crazy to you, that’s because it is. But, with teams like the Magic and Knicks out there, that’s not out of the realm of possibility. For a team desperately lacking playmaking and dynamic ball-handling, VanVleet is tantalizing. Rebuilding teams need competent guard play to run an effective offense, and often young players develop bad habits because teams ask them to do too much in the beginning. With a veteran like VanVleet to take the pressure off, it can prove invaluable to a player’s growth. He’s nearly a borderline All-Star anyway and is still young enough. At 25, there might be even more improvement.
VanVleet’s averaging career-highs across the board this season, clocking in at 17.6/3.8/6.6 on 40.9/38.8. If the FG% seems low, it’s because 48% of VanVleet’s shots are 3PTs. His eFG% is 50.3, which is just hundredths of a percentage behind “efficient” guards like De’Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Those aren’t max-player numbers, but players who don’t deserve the max often get it anyways.
It may not even be a bad idea for a team like New York to max VanVleet out. If $30 million is an overpay, it might be the only way the Knicks can acquire talent in free agency. It’s not like the Knicks are contending, so they don’t have to worry about the money being used somewhere else. Even though New York is mired in every free agency rumor ever, they never land the big fish anyways.
(Rest In Peace to the Knicks fan that bought the customized Kyrie Irving Jersey)
R.J. Barrett can develop his off-ball scoring and cutting with VanVleet while Mitchell Robinson would benefit from VanVleet’s greater gravity (sorry Elfrid Payton, it’s just not the same).
Montrezl Harrell
The Clippers center has been consistent over the last two years in his role as a high-scoring, energetic, small-ball center. Harrell is averaging 18.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game this season on 58.0 FG% in 28.1 minutes per game while establishing himself as a Sixth Man of the Year contender. He’s earning $6 million this year, and while he likely won’t get a long-term deal worth over $20 million annually, he’s still up for a payday.
Harrell’s size and lack of shooting ability make it unlikely he can be a consistent starter in the NBA. Off the bench though, he’s a dangerous weapon. NBA teams usually don’t have a backup center at the level as Harrell, allowing him to feast on opposing second units. His overwhelming physicality and athleticism are hard to stop, making Harrell one of the best pick-and-roll bigs in the league. Next to a competent ball-handler, Harrell’s relentless playstyle around the hoop is a deadly option.
Not many teams really need a guy like Harrell though, as he’s more of a luxury than a necessity. Once again, all it takes is one team. This is, of course, assuming that Harrell would rather take the bag over a pay-cut with the contending Clippers. Loyalty may certainly be a factor, but keep in mind, Harrell’s never had a huge payday in the NBA before. Pay-cuts are something stars who have already made big money do. Maybe it’s Detroit or perhaps Charlotte, but he’s worth over $20 million a year to at least one team. Harrell likely won’t get a contract longer than three years because he’s not a must-have player, but he’s still looking at an annual raise of over $10 million.
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdanovic may be young in terms of NBA experience, but he started off as a 25-year-old rookie. Now 27, this may be as good as Bogdanovic ever gets as an NBA player. He’s also stagnated from last year after dealing with multiple hamstring issues, lowering his market value even more. However, Bogdanovic’s limited role needs to be kept in mind. Sacramento doesn’t give him many reps as a ball-handler, which is arguably his biggest strength. He has a usage rate of 19.0% this year, which is even lower than last year’s 22.0%. Even so, Bogdanovic is still averaging 14.2 PPG this year on 42.4 FG% and 35.5 3PT% on 7.1 threes a game. As the third option or sixth man, Bogdanovic can provide a nice blend of shooting, playmaking, and versatility at 6’6″.
In the month of November, Bogdanovic averaged 17.5 points and 5.4 assists per game with Fox sitting out with injury. This included a seven-game stretch where Bogdanovic scored over 20 points five times and had two 10-assist games. He has the ability to be a great secondary ball-handler given his shooting and feel for the game but isn’t getting enough opportunities. Fox’s decision-making isn’t good enough yet to the point where he should be the primary ball-handler. However, Sacramento continues to limit Bogdanovic’s role.
Despite the frustration with the Kings, Bogdanovic is still an intriguing signing. Think about a nerfed version of Luka Doncic; Bogdanovic has the same strengths and weaknesses. There are few NBA players with his combination of size, shooting, and playmaking, making him worth the risk. As an RFA, there’s no guarantee Bogdanovic will leave, but a team like Orlando will gladly give him a hefty offer. They’ve needed more offensive firepower at their guard positions, and Bogdanovic fills that role. Something like a three-year deal for $55 to $65 million will probably be on the table. That’s similar to the four years and $94 million his teammate Buddy Hield received last summer.
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