NBA stars have been on the move, as the era of player empowerment continues, and a potential Anthony Davis trade looks to add the next chapter of the story. Although New Orleans has declared their loyalty to Davis, if he turns down a max extension, one wonders how long that loyalty will last, as they seek to get some value before his departure. As is tradition, the two most storied franchises in the NBA have risen to the occasion as suitors. But, are their offers really that enticing? Could there be another suitor lurking?
With his contract expiring in 2021, albeit with a player option for 2020, Anthony Davis’ trade value is astronomical. The Celtics and Lakers stand at the forefront of the race for Davis, but their offers have significant downsides that open the door for a dark horse.
The Milwaukee Bucks could make a play for Anthony Davis. Is this an overreaction based off a joking interaction between two of the NBA’s budding stars? Yes, but it has some merit. Milwaukee’s immediate future picks are mostly ensnared in the aftermath of the Eric Bledsoe and Matthew Dellavadova trades, but they still can offer far into the future firsts in the deal.
Milwaukee’s offer would potentially consist of Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, and picks of the Pelicans’ choosing. Middleton will receive max offers if he shakes his current slump (13.7 PPG and 27% from three over the last seven games) and returns to his dominant playoff numbers versus Boston (24.7 PPG and 61% 3PT%). Brogdon has been a dependable point for the Bucks, posting 51/47/97 splits with 15 PPG. These players will get around $40 million combined this offseason, potentially ranging to $50 million if they return to Milwaukee.
A New Orleans package of Davis, Solomon Hill, and E’Twaun Moore is about $48.4 million. Allowing New Orleans their choice of future draft picks from Milwaukee provides the Pelicans a small chance at a great pick if the post-trade team implodes. A 2023 Milwaukee first-round pick could come from a team without Middleton, Giannis, or Davis, a desolate and disconsolate bottomfeeder.
This all sounds crazy. What hope does Milwaukee have when Boston and Los Angeles will be throwing their hats in the ring? More than you would think. Let’s start with Boston.
The Celtics can’t trade for Davis and retain Kyrie Irving under the Designated Player Exemption of the latest CBA. This means that in order to trade for Davis, Irving has to decline his player option for 2019-20 and renegotiate with the Celtics to accommodate a Davis trade or be included in the deal. This takes their ability to make an overwhelming offer for Davis at the trade deadline, something like one of Horford/Irving/Hayward, Brown, and the choice of their potential four first rounders, off the table.
If Irving can’t decline his option before the draft, their war chest begins to show signs of cobwebs. Brown still has incredible potential but has appeared to be a far cry from his playoff self: 18 PPG and 5 RPG in 32 minutes on average. Horford will have another year of mileage on him and is a peculiar addition for a Pelicans team at a crossroads. If they want to compete, is replacing your 25-year-old unicorn with a then 33-year-old center who averaged 13 and 7.5 last year, down to 12.5 and 6.5 this year, the best way to do it?
Assuming Tatum and Irving are untouchable, the Celtics making an otherworldly play for Davis that seemed inevitable, but now seems unlikely. Their best 2019 offseason offer remains Horford/Hayward and Brown except their remaining picks are now their own unless the Grizzlies pick rolls over again.
So, we’ll put the optimal 2019 Celtics offer as Al Horford, Jaylen Brown and Boston’s 2020 and 2022 picks.
The Lakers are a different story. They have plenty of viable assets. They’re just raw. While Davis would clearly like to play with LeBron, the recent George, Leonard, and Irving deals show that teams don’t really care about players’ interests in location. The Lakers perfect scenario would be a deadline deal of two of Ball/Ingram/Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and then multiple firsts, probably 2019 and 21.
KCP has been largely futile this season, and LeBron basically told him to shut and stop whining about maybe being traded. He got you a good contract earlier this year. His expiring $12 million certainly makes him important for this though.
Ball has been an enigma, flashing equal signs of Kidd and Carter-Williams. His abysmal shooting has had an uptick, but it’s been from 30.5-32.4% from three, and from 45-52% at the line. Ball has value in LA, but I’m not sure how much that translates elsewhere. That being said, his raw potential could be what swings the Davis sweepstakes towards the Lakers.
Ingram joins Ball in the incredibly raw camp. Although Ingram has shown flashes and sports a 15 PPG average, his free throw and three-point percentage have dropped more than five percent this season. Ingram has struggled to find his groove so far in his career and with early comparisons to Durant.
The Lakers do have one movable proven commodity, Kyle Kuzma. Although Kuzma has stunningly dropped five percent from beyond the arc, he’s picked up two points and acquitted himself well alongside LeBron, something few can say upon the King’s arrival in their town.
The Lakers best opportunity to make a trade is at the deadline this year when they can still use KCP as contract filler. They will try and sell New Orleans on the potential of Ingram and Ball with KCP filling out the deal. This would constitute an incredibly short-sighted decision by New Orleans to make a mid-season deal, especially when Davis has said he’ll give them this year to prove themselves.
This means that the Davis sweepstakes would take place in the offseason, taking KCP off the table. Los Angeles still wants to be in the max free agent market, and it’s doubtful they’d leave themselves so devoid of depth by offering the trifecta of Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma at the same time.
That being said, New Orleans should want at least one proven player and should demand to get at least Kuzma from that three. I’ll assume that LA is confident they can get Davis, they will re-sign one of KCP, McGee, Rondo, or Stephenson for the requisite amount
So, let’s put Los Angeles’s optimal offer as Ball/Ingram (pick your own adventure), Kuzma, and two firsts.
While Boston and LA put forth two quality offers, Milwaukee is right there with him. Here is our final optimal trade tally:
Milwaukee: Middleton (27, approximately $30 million), Brogdon (26, approximately $15 million), two firsts
Boston: Horford (33, $30.1 million), Brown (22, $6.5 million), two firsts
Los Angeles: Ball (21, $8.7 million) / Ingram (21, $7.2 million), Kuzma (23, $1.9 million) and Cap Filler (old, $X million) and two firsts
I think Los Angeles probably has the lead if New Orleans wants to completely blow it up and rebuild, but why should they? They already maxed Jrue Holiday, and if they bring back Randle and Mirotic they have a solid roster. I don’t credit them with the ability of Boston or Houston to rebuild without tanking, and you can’t tank with any of these trades.
So if you can’t tank, compete. In a hopefully post-Durant West, the Pelicans could field a starting lineup of Holiday, Brogdon, Middleton, Mirotic, and Randle. That lineup competes while giving you a good young core that you can explode if you want to start a “Process”.
Los Angeles’s trade leaves New Orleans with at least one unproven quality and immediate decisions on long-term deals for players who really haven’t played a playoff game yet. If they star in the playoffs, Los Angeles’ trade could become the most appealing, but as of now, I’d deem it too uncertain. Also, they have only their own picks to trade. So long as LeBron plays in LA, they won’t see the lottery. They could set up a Moreyian rollover system to outlast the King’s reign, but I think that gives New Orleans too much credit.
Boston’s trade dumps Hayward or Horford there for the long-term, and that is incredibly damaging to any rebuilding effort. It’s also not very helpful in a competing effort. Brown still has immense upside, but you want Brown to develop into the player that Middleton is right now with more consistency.
Right now, Milwaukee has the most appealing offer if New Orleans waits past the deadline to make the Anthony Davis trade.