The Utah Jazz’s impressive 26-6 record has granted them the top spot in the NBA’s standings. However, does their record imply that the Utah Jazz are legitimate championship contenders?
We will be analyzing the 2021 Jazz in depth, and comparing their performances to past NBA champions. In order to do so, we will focus on a few key metrics that I believe are critical.
In order to understand how legitimate the Utah Jazz’s championship aspirations are, let’s take a look at their strengths and weaknesses.
Before diving in, note that this topic was the main focus of TPR’s Per Sources Podcast episode today, which can be heard via Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Analyzing the Utah Jazz’s championship contender legitimacy.
Their roster.
The Utah Jazz have the perfect blend of veteran leadership, prime all-stars, and supporting cast. They are lead by Donovan Mitchell (24.1PTS, 4.6 REB, 5.3 AST) and top 5 Per Sources ranked center Rudy Gobert (14.0 PTS, 13.3 REB, 1.2 AST, 2.8 BLK).
The two all stars are complimented by veteran point guard Mike Conley Jr. (16.3 PTS, 5.7 AST) and an abundance of talented scorers in Bojan Bogdanovic (15.3 PTS) and 6th man of the year candidate Jordan Clarkson (18.3 PTS).
The Utah Jazz’s strengths.
The Utah Jazz’s talented roster spreads the wealth around. They have 6 scorers who average double digits, five of which average over 14 PTS. They are a well balanced team who rank 4th in OFF RTG and 2nd in DEF RTG.
The Utah Jazz also rank 1st in rebounds and 7th in blocks. Additionally, they are ranked 1st in the NBA at defending the 3PT shot (10.9 OPP 3PM), while ranking 1st in 3PM.
The Utah Jazz are a versatile team that can punish opponents in several different ways. When locked in, they are very hard to beat, which has been proven as the Jazz have gone 24-2 in their last 26 games.
The Utah Jazz’s weaknesses
When analyzing top tier teams that are as consistent in the playoffs as they are in the regular season, one metric stands out the most to me; the AST %.
The Utah Jazz are ranked 24th in AST% (57.7). This advanced stat matters to me because if the Utah Jazz were to win the NBA championship, they would be the lowest ranked AST % team since the 2012 Miami Heat.
Every NBA champion since the 2012 Heat has ranked 16th or better in this category.
The Utah Jazz also turn the ball over a little too much (ranked 21st) and are dead last in steals. I am not concerned about the steals per game ranking, because that’s just an indication that they are not cheating on the defensive end.
The Jazz rank 24th in PTS OFF TO, 16th in FBPS, & 24th in PITP.
Are the Utah Jazz legitimate championship contenders?
In summary, yes the Utah Jazz are legitimate championship contenders. However, I predict that the Utah Jazz will not win an NBA championship this season for several reasons.
The 2021 Utah Jazz have more in common with the 2012 Miami Heat & 2020 Lakers than any other championship team in the past. One major different, the Utah Jazz do not have LeBron James. They do not have a top 10 NBA player.
Teams that do not excel at passing the basketball often struggle in the playoffs. Regular season juggernauts like the Bucks, Rockets, Trail Blazers, and several others have seen their high power offenses crumble, when faced with playoff defenses.
If Donovan Mitchell were to struggle, the Jazz cannot make up for his struggles in many other ways as they are a mediocre team at converting points off of turnovers and fast break points. In addition to that, if they struggle shooting from the perimeter, they are one of the worst teams at scoring in the paint.
Lastly, the Jazz’s offense is relatively spread out. If any of the Utah Jazz’s top 9 players are injured, they will struggle to score like we saw last year in Bogdanović’s absence.
Their biggest liability.
The Utah Jazz’s biggest liability is Donovan Mitchell. Not the player himself, but his age. Mitchell, 24, is still 3 years away from hitting his prime.
In recent years, when championship teams faced suffocating defenses, they often relied on their best players to carry them to victory. Donovan Mitchell is no LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, or Steph Curry. At least not yet.
How the Utah Jazz can be legitimate championship contenders.
The most obvious scenario that comes to mind would be injuries plaguing other contenders. However, if all other teams are healthy, the Jazz’s chances of winning an NBA championship will be difficult.
Before the playoffs start, the Jazz need to improve their ball movement. In addition to that, they need to generate points in additional ways beyond the 3PM. As a top defensive team, I’d like to see them generate more fast break points and points off of turnovers.
Also, considering their injury history, the Utah Jazz should look into adding a skilled backup point guard. Potential targets like Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo come to mind.
Care to debate whether or not the Utah Jazz are legitimate NBA championship contenders? Tweet me @TPRx11
P.S if you are a Utah Jazz fan, I wouldn’t be discouraged. I am simply pointing our their glaring flaws from a predominantly statistical level. This could be the year Donovan Mitchell takes his game to the next level and shocks the world!