As the 2019 NFL season draws ever closer, I think it’s important we collect our thoughts and set expectations on those playing the most important position the game has to offer. With 32 quarterbacks, getting a large group of people to do a full ranking is difficult. I made it slightly more simplistic by putting out a survey that just asked to drag-and-drop them into order from best-to-worst. This is what happens when the PerSources followers rank 2019 starting QBs.
32. Josh Rosen
It’s pretty funny that people are putting Rosen below the rookies. I mean you legitimately have no idea what these 21 and 22-year-olds are going to be at the next level. Yet, NFL fans have apparently seen enough out of Rosen after one season.
For me, I think Rosen still deserves a shot after playing in such a dysfunctional system last year. I wouldn’t have him 32. At least, not yet.
31. Eli Manning
Even Eli is behind the rookies! Manning struggled last season and has proved to be on the back-end of his career. At the same time, that was probably the best season he’s had in a few years. The loss of OBJ will hurt him, but that could be made up by continuing to put the workload on Saquon Barkley. The days are numbered for Eli with first-round pick Daniel Jones breathing down his neck.
30. Dwayne Haskins
Ah, our first rookie. Haskins has a big arm and played against real talent. With that said, I still don’t think we heard enough about him in his final season at Ohio State. Coming into a situation in Washington that has a lot of question marks, I’m not sure this is the year Haskins asserts himself.
29. Jameis Winston
I’m not going to lie. I put Jameis Winston dead last. Tampa Bay is in no man’s land with the former number one pick. He’s been WILDLY inconsistent, and his decision-making doesn’t appear to be getting any better. The last hope for Winston in Tampa is getting QB-whisperer Bruce Arians as his HC. If this doesn’t work this year, Winston should be out.
28. Kyler Murray
This year’s first overall pick finds himself in an interesting spot in Arizona. He has a first-time NFL HC and an offense with some young weapons to work with, led by veteran Larry Fitzgerald. If all things worked perfectly, Murray could find himself as a top QB in a couple of years, but it will take some time.
27. Andy Dalton
Dalton is another guy in no man’s land right now. He’s not good enough to be a Super Bowl contender, but he’s not bad enough to warrant moving on and starting a rebuild. With the Bengals finally moving on from Marvin Lewis last year, I think they should’ve kicked Dalton out with him.
26. Josh Allen
What a weird rookie season for Josh Allen. Who could’ve imagined going into the season without an OL for a rookie QB wouldn’t work? Certainly not I. Allen’s athleticism and strong arm make him still intriguing, and the Bills have brought in some pieces to make his sophomore year one to pay close attention to.
25. Joe Flacco
Flacco had a mediocre season last year and was eventually benched for rookie Lamar Jackson. While Jackson struggled as well, the Ravens were willing to give the rookie the opportunity to work through it. They may have regretted it by the end of the year.
Now, “Cool Joe” is in Denver with John Elway who’s just going to keep finding vets until he hits in the draft. Denver has spent their last two first round picks on pass-catchers (Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant) which should help Flacco adjust. I still don’t think it’s enough to make him a top-20 starting QB for the upcoming year. This ranking seems right.
T-23. Sam Darnold
I’ve spoken about Darnold already. I think he was probably the most NFL-ready QB coming into the league last year. He has all of the tools to be successful. With a potentially competent coach in Adam Gase and a workhorse back in Le’Veon Bell, Darnold could be ready to take a leap this year.
T-23. Lamar Jackson
Lamar’s inability to pass will continue to worry me. John Harbaugh has said their offense will including a better passing attack than last year, but it can’t be much worse than what it was. If Jackson does see a drastic improvement, he can be great. However, until that day comes, I won’t believe it.
22. Marcus Mariota
Mariota and Winston are tied together forever. It happens whenever there are two QBs who go back-to-back with the first two picks. For both of them, their NFL careers have been less than spectacular. Mariota seems to get hurt multiple times a year and has just been mediocre since entering the league. If he doesn’t take the next step, Mike Vrabel should be willing to look elsewhere. And, no, that does not mean Ryan Tannehill.
21. Kirk Cousins
Those who’ve been following me for a while know that I was ALL IN on the Vikings last season. Cousins was supposed to be a big step up from Keenum the year prior. Instead, the offense regressed. My take on Cousins has always been that he’s “good, not great,” but I don’t even know if he was that last season.
20. Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy G is coming off an ACL injury that ended his season. Prior to that, he was struggling to find the same success he saw early in his 49ers’ tenure. Having watched Garoppolo play in New England (in training camps, preseason, and two NFL starts) I still believe he has the ability to be a really solid NFL QB. He needs to work on his decision-making a bit, but he has the tools and has learned from the best.
19. Dak Prescott
If you listened to Twitter, you’d think Dak Prescott was the worst QB of all-time. That’s just not the case. He falls in that lower-third to me, but stats say otherwise. Some of his numbers are comparable with the league’s best. However, asking for $30M+ is outrageous.
18. Mitchell Trubisky
This is pretty high, to be honest. Trubisky definitely has some talent, but I don’t think he’s shown enough to be above guys like Kirk Cousins. He’s been inconsistent, but if he’s able to continue to grow in Nagy’s system (and rely on his incredibly talented defense) that may help. The Bears have lofty expectations this year, and Trubisky will have all of our eyes on him.
17. Derek Carr
I’m a BIG Derek Carr guy. Like, I love the guy. Learning a new system, dealing with injuries, and losing weapons have hurt him over the past seasons. With the addition of a new RB and a superstar WR, Carr may make his jump again. I once wrote that he was on the verge of being a top-five QB, and I still believe he can be that.
16. Nick Foles
Foles is ranked pretty fairly. He’s obviously going to a new system with a lot of question marks at the offensive skill positions. I’m not sure he can really turn their offense into a great one. In Jacksonville, it seems they’re just looking for someone to be better than Bortles was. And, that, Foles can do.
15. Matthew Stafford
He’s fallen a bit over the years without Calvin Johnson, but Matthew Stafford’s receiving core looks completely different from just two years ago. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are legit WRs, and they’ve built a potentially great TE duo with Jesse James and T.J. Hockenson. Stafford needs to stay away from turnovers, and he’ll lead the Lions to an improvement over last year.
14. Cam Newton
Newton turned in an average performance for his 2018 season where he clearly had shoulder problems. He and the Panthers failed to capitalize on a bad year from the Buccaneers and an injury-riddled season from the Falcons, splitting the season series with Tampa and dropping both to Atlanta (Newton missed one of the two match-ups).
He obviously still has the talent to be a top QB, but he needs to limit his mistakes and prove that he’s healthy.
13. Carson Wentz
Wentz is another guy I’ve been very high on. His sophomore season was sensational prior to suffering a torn ACL. Last year, he struggled a bit to regain the form we saw the year prior. A back injury shut him down allowing the Eagles to turn the offense back over to Nick Foles. That incredible play we saw his first year is still in there, but his athleticism was a big part of his success. Since the injury, we haven’t seen him at the same level.
12. Jared Goff
I’m not going to be one of those people who just trashes Jared Goff because of his ineffectiveness in the Super Bowl. However, I did say prior to the game (on the “Beards By the Bay” podcast) that I think Goff is inexperienced and is easily flustered. He gets a lot of the credit for stuff that I believe should go to McVay. With that said, I still think Goff can be a solid QB in this league, but I think 12 might be too high right now.
11. Baker Mayfield
While Baker had a great rookie season, this ranking looks a lot like projection for his new offense. Adding OBJ to an already stellar group of guys will just improve his numbers. My worry for Baker comes from having an inexperienced HC in Freddie Kitchens. He could be the downfall of this team. But, I definitely understand the hype and #11 ranking.
10. Deshaun Watson
Let me be honest. When I first saw this, I was going to talk about Watson having a great rookie year, and then coming back to having an average year last season. Looking back on it, Watson had a really strong 2018 after an ACL injury that cut his rookie season short. I’d like to see his touchdown numbers go up a bit, but he’s shown to be in the upper-echelon of young QBs.
9. Ben Roethlisberger
This year is going to be a very important year for Roethlisberger and Juju Smith-Schuster. They still have high expectations, but this is the first time the combo will be at work without Antonio Brown. Is Roethlisberger still good enough (and healthy enough) to be a top QB? I’d certainly question that right now. Ninth seems like a good place for Ben.
8. Matt Ryan
Matty Ice is coming off of an unsuccessful season that was plagued by injuries to the Falcons. He lost his RB1, DeVonta Freeman, for essentially the entire season to a groin injury. Now, he’ll be without his safety blanket in pass-catching back Tevin Coleman who found a new home in San Francisco.
In a full season without OC Steve Sarkisian, Ryan and the Falcons may get fully back on track. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD find a way to get Julio open in the end zone.
7. Philip Rivers
Prior to last season, Rivers probably would’ve been in the middle of the pack. However, a GREAT 2018 reminded the NFL just how good Rivers can be when he has healthy talent around him. He’s another year older, but I think Rivers can be just as productive this season, as they slide Tyrell Williams’ production out and Hunter Henry’s in.
6. Andrew Luck
How many years have we been saying “just wait until Luck’s healthy,” huh? Last year, we got to witness a healthy Andrew Luck again, and it’s certainly a spectacle. The biggest knock against Luck is still that he turns the ball over a little too much for my liking. With Chris Ballard building a seemingly solid team around Luck, I have no complaints about him getting ranked sixth.
5. Russell Wilson
I’ve been against putting Wilson in my top five for a few years now. However, he just keeps carrying that team now without the stars they once had. Losing Doug Baldwin is definitely a hit, and Pete Carroll’s taking a risk with D.K. Metcalf, but Wilson will make do with what he has because that’s what he does.
4. Aaron Rodgers
This feels like the first time I’ve seen Rodgers outside the top-two in a long time, maybe ever. Last season, the Packers experienced the worst season with Rodgers at the helm since his rookie year. That resulted in the firing of Mike McCarthy, which probably should’ve been done a while ago. Now, it’s up to Rodgers to prove himself again. They’re building up the defense, but his offense still seems to be missing stars to help him succeed. Fourth just feels right now.
3. Drew Brees
In almost any other year Drew Brees wins the MVP. Last year, however, he had to go up against Mahomes. The then 39-year-old’s numbers were still incredible. His accuracy is just as good as ever, and the combination of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas is propelling him to even new heights. I’d like to see Brees win one more ring before he hangs them up. Maybe this is the year.
2. Tom Brady
This looks weird, but I’m okay with it. Brady had a pedestrian year in 2018. He wasn’t the dominant force we’re used to seeing week in and week out. That may be because of his age, or it may be because of his under-performing weapons. Either way, the soon-to-be 42-year-old will have to bounce back a bit to retain a top-three spot. In the end, Brady and the Patriots’ offense performed when it mattered.
1. Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes was the obvious pick for MVP last season. In his first year as the starter in Kansas City, he threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. His ability was evident, and it truly looked like sitting a year behind Alex Smith helped him prepare and adjust to the NFL.
With all that being said, I still don’t know if we can anoint him the best QB in the NFL just yet. Yes, he had a great season. It was probably the best first year ever. At the same time, how many guys have we seen have a great year and then completely regress the next? I think it’s a little premature to give him the top spot, but he’s certainly on that trajectory.