After a 3-13 season, including a nine-game losing streak to end the season, the Detriot Lions hold the third overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Everyone has their own opinion on what the Lions should do, with most saying the Lions should trade the pick. However, most recently Mel Kiper, ESPN’s NFL Draft analyst, threw out the idea that they should hold onto the pick and select Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa.
The caption is fitting, as it completely goes against the grain of what most are saying. The rationale, however, is understandable to a degree, as Matthew Stafford, who’s coming off of an injury, has never won a playoff game in 11 seasons with the team. Detroit hasn’t been in the position to take a QB this high since Stafford’s arrival, and Kiper feels that they should jump on the opportunity.
Convenience is the worst reason to draft a QB, and this is no different. The best chance the Lions have to turn their franchise around is to trade the third overall pick.
They Don’t Need a QB
There are few statistics that defend Stafford. His 69-79-1 career record as a starter certainly leaves a lot to be desired. On top of that, his 0-3 playoff record puts his entire starting job in the NFL into question.
The conundrum, however, is that Stafford is actually a good quarterback who’s never, ever, had any legitimate help around him.
In 11 seasons, Stafford has played alongside just one 1,000-yard rusher, which was Reggie Bush in 2013. The Lions have also had just one top-10 scoring defense during Stafford’s tenure, which was back in 2013 when Stafford still had to will the team (eight game-winning drives) to the playoffs.
The reality is that Stafford’s teams have been undermanned, and he’s been asked to overachieve most of his career. If the team continues to run as they are and replace Stafford with Tagovailoa, he’ll be asked to do the same.
Trading the Pick
So, if the Lions aren’t going to select a QB, what should they do? Glad you asked, loyal reader.
There are multiple teams within the top-10 (Dolphins and Chargers) who need a QB. Should either covet Tagovailoa (or any QB) and want to ensure that they get their guy, they’ll need to trade up to draft a QB. It’s a similar position that Indianapolis was in during the 2018 draft, sitting with the third overall pick and no desire to select a QB. They basically held an auction which was won by the Jets who jumped from sixth to third by giving away three second-rounders.
According to Drafttek’s pick value chart, the Colts gave away a pick valued at 2,200 and got a return of 2,956 (picks #6, #37, #49, and a future second which has an average value of 416). Basically, according to the chart, the Colts got a king’s ransom for just one pick, and it’s all because of the potential value of a franchise QB. Tagovailoa has unbelievable potential and just needs one team to bite on his upside.
He’s been linked to Miami for months, who certainly have the arsenal to trade with. A potential trade to snag the third pick for the Dolphins would probably be #5, #26, #56 and a future fourth-rounder. Those four picks together are valued at 2,797, which isn’t as much as the Jets gave up, but it’s still a hefty sum to jump two picks. However, there are rumors that Miami isn’t enthralled with Tua and could elect to wait until their pick to make a decision.
In that case, the opportunity for the Chargers to make a move will present itself. They don’t exactly have the draft capital that Miami does, but if they’re willing to, they could make a play. Just like the Jets, LA has to make a jump from sixth to third, and by giving up picks #6, #37, #71 and a future second, which altogether is valued at 2,751, they easily could.
Either way, the Lions would come away with a handful of picks while still having the chance at a blue-chip prospect, which is the ultimate win-win for a three-win team.
Rebuild the Defense
Coming into the season, on paper, the Lions defense looked like it could be legit. Six months later, and a season removed from ranking 31st in yards allowed, there are big issues on that side of the ball. If the Lions were to use their pick, they would most likely draft a player on defense, but in all likelihood, they can still grab one at either pick fifth or sixth.
The most mocked player to Detroit is Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah. Detroit had the league’s worst pass defense in 2019, and with Okudah they have a potential lockdown corner to either pair with former All-Pro Darius Slay or justification to trade Slay who has regressed in recent years.
The last time we saw Okudah was against Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl where he shined in all facets against one of the best offenses (and receiver groups for that matter) in the country.
Here, he displays his physicality and nose for the football up against standout sophomore Justyn Ross. And, in the clip below, he demonstrates his elite tackling ability in the open field.
Okudah consistently made huge plays, like this one to prevent a first down, all season for the Buckeyes and would be an immediate contributor for Matt Patricia’s defense.
The only issue is that by trading back a few picks, the Lions do run the risk of Okudah being off the board. In that case, there’s another great defender who fills an immediate need for the Lions, who just so happened to play against Okudah in this game – Isaiah Simmons.
Simmons lined up all over the place for the Tigers’ defense, with over 100 snaps on the defensive line and as a deep safety, and over 200 snaps as an in-the-box linebacker and a slot corner (per PFF). He defines versatility, and while he projects as a modern-day linebacker, he could be used in a number of ways for Detroit.
This is a simple, but important example of Simmons’ ability to stay in position with an athletic tight end and make a play on the football. TEs are used sparingly in the college game but are so important in the NFL, which makes Simmons even more valuable. He’s the perfect matchup for speedy tight ends and running backs out of the backfield.
When deployed as a pass rusher on the occasional blitz, he has great speed for a linebacker to get around tackles and get to the QB (eight sacks in 2019). He really is the complete package, and in the right hands (Patricia?), he has a limitless ceiling.
In basically every scenario, the Lions end up with one of these two players and begin to transform their defense. From there they can use the rest of their acquired picks and picks of their own to fill the holes left on defense.
The Reality of the Situation
Detroit was 3-4-1 when Matt Stafford was healthy. They were a few plays in Arizona, and a missed call in Green Bay, from being 5-3. If he can stay healthy while the front office addresses the defensive side of the ball, there really is no reason why they shouldn’t be able to turn this team around.
It all stems from the idea that the Lions have to trade the third overall pick.
For more Per Sources content check out my page here, and for more from the author (hello, that’s me) click here.