The AFC Playoff Picture currently reads:
- New England Patriots (10-1)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
- Houston Texans (7-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
- Buffalo Bills (8-3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Those six are followed by a trio of 6-5 teams (Colts, Titans, and Raiders), and finally, the 5-6 Cleveland Browns.
After eight games, the Browns had underachieved on all levels and just about everyone who hopped onto their offseason hype train was nowhere to be found. They were 2-6 and just about all hope was lost – a typical Cleveland feel. Suddenly, despite the occasional attack on another man’s well-being, things in Cleveland are trending up. The Browns playoff hopes are alive and well.
The Kareem Hunt Factor
Kareem Hunt is one of the most supremely talented and versatile running backs in the entire NFL. He has the ability to line up across the formation and create mismatches himself and the other talented players on that offense as well.
He made his season debut for the Browns after an eight-game suspension in Week 9 against the Bills. And, not coincidentally, the Browns haven’t lost since. Against Buffalo, he acted as Baker Mayfield’s safety blanket, recording seven catches for 44 yards. Mayfield threw no interceptions, and the Browns won 19-16. In Week 10, again, Mayfield threw no picks. He was able to reliably check-down to Hunt, who finished with six catches for 46 yards.
Not only are these not the numbers we typically discuss for running backs, but they don’t seem that exceptional. That’s because Hunt’s impact is being felt way beyond the stat sheet. The only stat that matters is that the Browns are 3-0 when Hunt plays. He was the final weapon this offense needed. He’s helped elevate the other outstanding talent with a level of unpredictability. Kareem Hunt is like gravy on Thanksgiving. You pour a little on the turkey and a little on the potatoes, and next thing you know, you’ve turned an average dish into a solid potential playoff contender. You follow?
The Rest of the Offense
While I do feel Kareem Hunt has been a huge help to everyone else in the Brown’s offense, there’s more credit to be handed out to the rest of the gang.
Baker Mayfield started the first eight games of the season with seven TDs and 12 interceptions, which was surprising after we all spent the offseason discussing how Cleveland had finally found their guy. It turns out that Cleveland’s guy just needed to find himself, and he’s certainly done so in the past three games. His 7:12 touchdown to interception ratio is finally back into the positives (14:13) for the first time since Week 1. In this three-game revival, Mayfield has thrown seven TDs to just one pick (math!).
The return of a successful Baker Mayfield hasn’t exactly brought out the Odell Beckham Jr. of old, but Cleveland fans should be happy to see a flourishing Jarvis Landry. In three games, Landry has nearly 300 yards and four TDs. Half of those came in his revenge game against Miami this past Sunday. Beckham also found the endzone against the Dolphins for the first time since Week 2, which may be a sign of things to come.
Then there’s second-year RB Nick Chubb, who’s done nothing but confirm the notion that, while Kareem Hunt is great, he’ll never be a three-down back in Cleveland. In three games with Hunt, Chubb has run for 314 yards, surpassing the 1,000-yard mark and remaining one of the league’s best overall rushing leaders. He’s had over 15 carries in every game this season and isn’t going anywhere.
The Schedule
So, outside of the recent trends, why should we be so optimistic about the Browns future? Well, for starters, outside of beating the lowly Dolphins, this three-game winning streak has included wins over both current AFC Wild Cards in the Bills and Steelers, and as it stands, things are about to lighten up.
Next week, Cleveland heads to Pittsburgh. The Steelers may have one of the league’s best defenses, but they have a very very very shaky offense. Mason Rudolph (who nearly died at the hands of Myles Garrett the last time these two teams faced off) will most likely not be playing, but for very different reasons. Rudolph was benched this past week in favor of Devlin Hodges, who seems destined to start against the Browns. While Hodges has played at a decent level, he’s nothing that the Browns should fear in the slightest.
In two weeks, Cleveland will have a great opportunity at an easy win when the 0-11 Bengals come to town. This is only the first time that Cleveland will get to play Cincinnati, as the Bengals host them again in Week 17. Assuming the Browns can find ways to win those games, that would put them at a guaranteed seven wins.
After that, Baker Mayfield will square up against his former college teammate Kyler Murray and his 3-7-1 Cardinals. Then, he’ll face the potential MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. That game is the only one that you could easily pencil in a loss. However, the Browns did beat Baltimore earlier this year and definitely can again. Regardless, they should split those games. Leaving them with, at worst, eight wins.
Which brings us back to the Steelers game next week. Not only would winning that game hypothetically secure a nine-win season, it’d also assure that Cleveland has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers. If both teams finish with nine wins, Cleveland wouldn’t have to worry about the possibility of being jumped by Pittsburgh.
So What Are We Really Getting At?
It’d be easy to say that the Browns playoff hopes are hinging on next week, but there’s more to it than that. Not only do I think that they’re playing at a high enough level to beat Pittsburgh, but before you know it, they’re going to be fully entrenched in clinching scenarios and if/then’s that often define the last few weeks of the season.
Coming into the season, everybody had the Browns as locks to make the playoffs, and after eight weeks, all of that potential seemed gone. However, come January, everyone who bet their life and then second-guessed themselves on Cleveland, might be changing their mind once again.
For more check out my website where I post all of my content, my Instagram, Twitter, or Per Sources exclusively.