The Phoenix Suns have won 4 of their last 5 games; including wins over Golden State and Milwaukee. The Suns’ recent improvement has had our Per Sources Instagram feed filled with comments asking, “Are the Phoenix Suns going to the playoffs next season?”
The Phoenix Suns’ near future is not as bright as NBA and Suns fans seem to think. However, that does not mean that the Suns should not be optimistic.
We’re going to discuss their reasons for optimism, the reality of the Western Conference, and why I do not think they will be a playoff team next season.
The Phoenix Suns 16-52:
The suns attempted to provide their team with veteran leadership over the summer. Unfortunately for the Suns, they did not see the type of development they were hoping for early in the season.
Young teams typically struggle on the road and the Suns are the epitome of that with a 6-29 road record so far. In order to make the playoffs in the Western Conference, you typically need to be close to .500 on the road. You may also be able to slide in by being elite at home like the Spurs.
The Suns are not closer to either of those bench marks just yet.
Reasons for Suns fans to be optimistic about their future:
Their young core is relatively the same age:
It is no secret that the Suns’ roster is built around a young core with a lot of potential. The Suns have focused on acquiring several young players who can play multiple positions.
As of today, the Suns’ main pieces:
- Devin Booker, 22.
- DeAndre Ayton, 20.
- Kelly Oubre Jr., 23.
- Josh Jackson, 22.
- Mikal Bridges, 22.
Their roster is also complimented by T.J. Warren, 25, and Tyler Johnson, 26.
The Suns are investing in developing their young roster.
Despite what some critics may lead you to believe, the Suns have made some very smart roster decisions and draft choices over the years. Devin Booker was their 13th draft pick in 2015 and has continued to improve in almost every statistical category. T.J. Warren was their 15th pick in 2014, and has shown improvement year after year as well. Ayton, the forgotten rookie, is also having a formidable season at the center position.
The acquisition of Oubre Jr. indicated to us that the Suns are targeting players who they expect to mesh well with their young roster. Developing their roster should help them land key veterans in the off season. The Suns have made sure they have the cap flexibility to be able to do so.
Devin Booker.
During the 2018-2019 off season, I projected Devin Booker to be a top 5 shooting guard. Devin Booker is already showing all-time great scoring potential.
Booker is currently averaging 25.1 PTS, 6.7 AST, 4.1 REB, .871 FT%, .328 3P%, .459 FG%, and 4.0 TO.
The Suns still need a point guard to help Booker’s efficiency. He is also years away from his prime. That should scare opposing teams for years to come.
Why the Suns’ near future is not as bright as optimistic fans hope it is:
In order to asses where the Suns will be next season, I’ve looked at other teams’ histories as examples. The quickest way to take a step forward is to land an all-star veteran, among several other veterans.
The Timberwolves managed to slide into the 8th seed of last year’s playoffs with Jimmy Butler. However, the Lakers failed to do so with LeBron James this season. Both teams were a top 4 teams.
Both teams did not have an impressive finish to end the year. The common theme? Once their star veteran player was hurt, the teams struggled significantly.
When you take a look at how adding an all-star veteran affected Los Angeles and Minnesota, I’d encourage Suns fans to be patient and perhaps look to other examples of slow improvement. For example, lets take a look at the 76ers and Denver Nuggets.
What do the Nuggets and 76ers have in common?
Both teams drafted well. Both teams made a decision in regards to who they were going to build around. Both teams slowly developed their roster. Both teams allowed their young player to emerge as the star. Both teams went on to add veterans who did not completely take over the team.
Embiid and Jokic are the cornerstones of their respective franchises. Regardless of who their team adds, it will remain that way. I expect the Suns to build around Booker similarly.
Success in the Western Conference takes time.
The Timberwolves are not the first team to discover that climbing the ladder in the Western Conference takes time. It is also possible to “run out of time”, as we saw with Sacramento and New Orleans in recent years.
The Nuggets had to miss the playoffs by a single game as their roster developed before emerging as a Western Conference power house.
The Suns’ roster is not better than the Timberwolves’, Jazzs’, or Nuggets’ from last season. Their development will take time. I encourage Suns fans to enjoy the process.
Phoenix Suns fans need to ‘Trust The Process’.
The Suns rank 29th in defensive rating. They also rank 27th in offensive rating. They have a league low 6 wins on the road. They’re also not that much better at home. You don’t leap from that to to 10 games over .500 over one season.
The Suns’ roster does have potential. However, learning how to defend takes time. Landing the right veterans is a tricky process. On top of all that, you need a head coach who can actually lead and help change the culture.
As it turns out, saying you’re done missing the playoffs does not always translate to not missing the playoffs. It’s not an easy process. It usually takes a couple seasons.
Having a guy like Devin Booker sure does help.
Feel free to debate on twitter @TPRx11.