The 2021 NBA finals features the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks, who may be without Giannis Antetokounmpo. I have taken a deep dive analysis into both of these teams and came up with the probable outcome should Antetokounmpo play or not.
In order to analyze the 2021 NBA finals and attempt to make an accurate prediction into the outcome, I referenced some of the most critical advanced stats that Per Sources followers have become familiar with.
Previous NBA champions advanced stats.
This was the chart I used to exam that the Jazz were not going to win the 2021 NBA championship this season. I will be using it once again to help with my Suns Bucks analysis and prediction.
2021 Suns Bucks advanced analytics.
Some things that jump at me immediately are the fact that the Suns have been more in line with what I consider an NBA champion to look like. Going by the data alone, with or without Antetokounmpo, the Suns look like the clear cut NBA champions this season.
However, it’s a little more complicated than that.
Where the Bucks have advantages over the Suns.
The Bucks at times, although rare, have shown us that they have the offensive fire power to compete with the best of them. If we go by my premise that moving the basketball is the way to victory, in the Bucks’ last two wins over Atlanta, they had 24 & 28 assists respectively, compared to their 19 from a prior game. In all of the Bucks’ impressive victories, they moved the ball. In all their defeats, the ball looked sticky.
Why did I focus on the last two wins? Because the Bucks proved that they can generate fire power, with or without Antetokounmpo, to win games by passing the basketball. Although I believe they need Antetokounmpo, they are going to need that specific style of play to win.
Being an inefficient, poor 3P shooting, isolation team that looks like the Boston Celtics, is a quick way to be swept.
However, they need Antetokounmpo.
With Antetokounmpo, they become a very versatile team and a particularly difficult matchup for the Suns. The Suns are able to shift between big/small ball and manipulate teams into playing their style. When you consider the fact that Antetokounmpo can guard either Crowder, Bridges, or Paul in pick & roll situations, they have a unique advantage that none of the teams Phoenix has faced yet can match.
Where the Suns have advantages over the Bucks.
There are several low hanging fruits to pick from when identifying the Suns’ advantages. The Bucks are a low basketball IQ team, the Suns are not. Mike Budenholzer sticks to his style and match ups, for better or worse. Monty Williams will not hesitate to make adjustments. The Suns move the basketball and play a lot more efficiently than the Bucks do.
If the Suns are able to figure out the Bucks, I don’t trust Budenholzer to make the necessary adjustments to retaliate. If the Suns can force Antetokounmpo to revert to his stubborn ways by forming the wall, they’ll be able to guard the 3P shot afterwards better than anyone Milwaukee has faced yet.
2021 NBA Finals Predictions.
My heart says the Milwaukee Bucks are going to find a way to rally behind Antetokounmpo and pull this off. My mind tells me, if you look at the data, the Phoenix Suns are going to win this in six games.
Many NBA analysts are trying to explain how Lopez is an advantage for the Bucks, as if we didn’t watch Ayton vs Jokic. The Suns are simply are a tougher team with a higher basketball IQ, and will have the best player in the series in Chris Paul.
However, there is hope for Bucks fans.
Game one is going to determine a lot about how this series plays out. If the Bucks can steal game one, without Antetokounmpo, this series can dramatically shift in their favor. The Bucks are the team with continuity, experience, and proven stars. If the Bucks play the way they played vs Atlanta during those last two games, with the addition Antetokounmpo, they can absolutely win this series.
It’s very simple, when the Bucks move the basketball, they can beat anyone. They look like a battle tested team that has improved in the last couple of months. Is that enough to beat a consistent team that has been playing at that level for a while?
Let me know your thoughts via twitter @TPRx11